May 19, 2007

Recruits, talent evaluators and the ’net

Kevin McCarthy
 

Everyone falls in love. For some of us, reality eventually sets in and our paramour loses some of that initial attractiveness. What happens then? Well, far too often in the basketball world the hate game kicks in and younger, fresher talent is sought. We take a critical look at the world of talent evaluators.

Surrounded by so much--dare we type, hoopla--coming out of high school, it seemed improbable they would be able to live up to such press vaunted clippings.

In the cases of phenoms Larry Gurganious, Antonio Kellogg, DeMarcus Nelson, Tim Pierce and Quentin Thomas, they have yet to. The reasons are multiple.

Let’s take a deeper-than-the-surface look at the past and present situations of these young men, hopefully prior to the so-called Conventional Wisdom (CW), once so enamored of each of these players, becomes a Roman Coliseum-like thumbs down.

In 2004-2005, Larry Gurganious was the No. 3 ranked wing in the west. The Long Beach Press Telegram has him as the best small forward on its annual Best In The West squad. An extremely athletic slasher, he brought fans out of the seats with his exploits for Berkeley’s St. Mary’s High.

In the midst of averaging 22 ppg. and 11 rpg. as a senior, Gonzaga came calling and Gurganious signed up to become a Zag.

In 2005-2006 as a freshman in Spokane, Gurganious played very little, averaging 7.6 minutes in 31 contests and 1.5 ppg.

In the recently concluded season, Gurganious suffered a cracked vertebrae in his back early on and ended up being redshirted, a status Coach Mark Few was considering anyway due to a logjam of wing talent.

But now, two years and counting down the line, it’s a case of Larry who?

Gurganious has disappeared off the radar, despite reports indicating he is close to 100% physically and finally healthy enough to make his mark with the Zags.

Put Gurganious’ situation in the What-Have-You-Done-For-Me-Lately category.

Antonio Kellogg was the 2003-2004 unofficial Mr. Basketball in the Bay Area or very close to it as a senior at McClymonds High. Kellogg was nationally ranked by HOOPSCOOP as the 7th best point guard and 41st player overall after his play at the NIKE All-American Camp during the summer.

Connecticut assistant coach Clyde Vaughan established an early relationship with Kellogg and the Oakland native eventually signed to play college basketball with the Huskies, one of the national powers in college basketball. Kellogg also considered Kansas and Washington, among others.

But his freshman year in Storrs was grounded by a number of legal problems and Kellogg eventually was expelled from Connecticut. He returned to the Bay Area, then almost ended up at Southern Mississippi with Larry Eustachy before the arrival of Hurricane Katrina in the Gulf Coast landed him at USF.

After redshirting the requisite season, Kellogg got back on the hardwood this season. He led the West Coast Conference (WCC) in steals with 2.4 a game, was fifth in assists at 3.6 a contest and averaged 17.2 ppg. He was also named USF’s top defender.

Kellogg’s statistics were extremely solid--especially so for a sophomore--yet curiously he mustered only enough votes to be named a member of the WCC Honorable Mention squad. This despite USF’s solid 8-6 conference record.

Kellogg has two more years to play on the Hilltop but the internet jury has already emitted periodic blasts aimed at Kellogg for being unable to single-handedly turn the Dons program around. Granted, his performance and effectiveness remain inconsistent but Kellogg is but a sophomore, is a backcourter who can only do so much and, most importantly, USF simply lacks the frontcourt talent necessary to make a run for the top.

Not that such will assuage those who never miss an opportunity to diss.

DeMarcus Nelson was elevated to near god-like status in 2003-2004 while tearing up prep ball in the Sacramento area. He played in the McDonald’s All-America game as a senior after finishing the season as the all-time points leader in the California prep ranks with 3,462. Rivals listed him as the 17th best player in the country, Insiders had him 30th.

Coach K and Duke came calling and DeMarcus headed east.

After two so-so seasons hindered by a ruptured thumb ligament and a broken right ankle, Nelson finally made it to double-figures scoring with 14.1 ppg as a junior. He’s gone from shooting 40% as a frosh, to 45% in his second year, to this season’s 47%. Nelson became a starter this year after coming off the bench 48 times out of 57 games in his previous two seasons.

14.1 ppg. in the Atlantic Coast Conference is a very solid accomplishment but, according to some, not nearly enough for Nelson to maintain the residence on Mt. Olympus granted to him as a prepster.

Tim Pierce was a can’t-miss scorer par excellence in the prep ranks, pouring in 51 points in his highest scoring game. As a senior, Pierce was ranked the 77th best prospect in the nation by recruiting guru Clark Francis. CalHiSports.com listed Pierce as the best prep forward prospect in the state.

These gaudy accolades lent credence to the belief that any college team obtaining Pierce’s services would be getting a point-producing wing. Again, such was the Conventional Wisdom at the time.

But after signing with Arizona State and experiencing limited playing time in Tempe, Pierce returned to the Bay Area and signed with San Jose State, a member of the underrated Western Athletic Conference.

Pierce started 10 games for Coach George Nessman this season--the first 10 of the season but none in conference play. His playing time averaged 18 minutes a game overall but dipped to 14 in league.

Pierce shot 34% overall on the season, but performed better in conference with 41%. The same goes with his long distance shooting: 31% overall but 34% in league. In both league and non-league play, Pierce grabbed 3.3 rpg. For the season, he averaged 8.3 ppg., dipping to 5.8 in WAC games.

Pierce enjoyed some bright moments this past season, scoring 23 points against Santa Clara on November 27 and 20 points in a February 1 victory on the road against Idaho. He shot 5-for-8 from three-point range against the Vandals. He also notched 20 points against conference champion Nevada on February 14.

For the season, Pierce reached double-figures scoring 10 times and led the Spartans with a total of 40 three-pointers.

But Conventional Wisdom had dictated greater heights for Pierce.

Keep in mind that San Jose State had three freshmen redshirts--a guard, a forward and a center--sitting out this past season and have added four new players--two junior college wing/shooting guard transfers, a 6-9 freshman with mobility and outside shooting range, plus a 6-8 inside power player.

This prospect of much more size and bulk--therefore greater threats in the paint for this coming season--should open up increased long-range opportunities for Pierce and the rest of the shooters on the Spartan roster.

Also, having Justin Graham, one of the aforementioned redshirt freshmen and a skilled ballhandler/penetrator, manning the point should also provide more open looks.

All of this will be beneficial to Pierce in his remaining seasons but will it be enough to keep the on-line pitbulls at bay?

Quentin Thomas was wooed to wear Carolina blue after starring at Oakland Tech, with Kansas and Arizona State among his rejected suitors. Thomas’ prep teams won four league championships and garnered two NorCal championships.

As a freshman at North Carolina in 2004-2005, he averaged 6.3 minutes a game, taking 22 shots, making 10 and earning 47 assists.

As a sophomore, Thomas’ playing time jumped to 12.0 a game. He passed for 78 assists and averaged 2.3 ppg, making 26 of 61 shot attempts.

In his just-completed junior season, Thomas dropped back down to 6.1 minutes each contest. His playing time was reduced from 337 minutes as a sophomore to 164. A stress fracture in his foot was a prominent factor in seeing less court time. As he did as a frosh, he was credited with 47 assists.

With Ty Lawson currently ahead of him at the point and no thought of Lawson heading to the NBA, it appears Thomas will close out his Tarheel career again coming off the bench.

The CW is that Thomas has not lived up to his promise.

But something remains incongruent about all these players’ snapshots--two elements specifically.

Here were adults, many supposed seasoned talent evaluators, with some renumerated for their judgments, offering acclaim and approval to and about each of these players--the reputations of these kids were not self-created.

So, if a youngster has yet to or doesn’t live up to the build-up and adoration bestowed upon him as a youngster, who is wrong?

More importantly, who pays the price?

Hint: it’s not the evaluators.

No, the fallout from errors, over-inflated judgements or even too-early-to-call situations is borne by the players.

It is the player who receives ridicule for not reaching the ‘greatness’ assessed to him by others. This is especially true in the age of message boards pulsating with posters willing to freely spill venom--just as long as they can do so anonymously.

The fact is none of these young men asked for such provocative testimonials--they were provided by ‘opinionaters,’ if you will. Not so surprisingly, some of these evaluators are no longer beating their breasts and proclaiming player X the second coming you-fill-in-the-name. No, they are on to newer, younger talent and busy polishing up their collection of superlatives.

Currently, Wendell McKines and Eli Holman are two more wading into the same treacherous waters. While certainly talented, each has been over-hyped by far too many who seemingly expect this duo will make every shot and grab every rebound.

Regardless of the question of fairness, the ball remains figuratively in the hands of all these young men, as it always did. But many others booked passage for the ride, at least until the ascent slowed or detours were taken.

And then the vipers went to work--doing what they do best or worst--depending upon your point of view.

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