June 10, 2008
NCP Report Card: 2004 Recruiting Class
In the arena of college basketball recruiting, NorCal Scouting Report employs its collective knowledge in the field in an attempt to develop player expectations about the future. Inside is the NCP braintrust in 2004 with the NorCal40 seniors, shortened to the first 10 entries, plus one with the final verdict on each.
Demarcus Nelson
The world is full of predictors and prophesizers who have verbally fallen flat on their faces. There was IBM Chairman Thomas Watson stating this in 1943: "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corporation joined Watson in infamy with this certitude in 1977: "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."
Even Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates missed both the boat and the dock with his "640K ought to be enough for anybody" in 1981.
With these busts in mind, just how have the NorCalPreps.com (NCP) wizards done in divining the top prep players in northern California. Have they been master psychics and clairvoyants or more along the lines of Miss Cleos?
The NCP clan make no claims as professional futurists but do employ their collective knowledge in the field in attempting to develop player expectations about the future. But as the late physicist Niels Bohr offered, tongue firmly in cheek, "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future."
Keep in mind that the NCP rating system is based on college potential and not high school production and that there are no mathematical or computer models employed in the process.
Here’s the NCP braintrust in 2004 with the NorCal40 seniors, shortened to the first 10 entries, plus one with a final verdict on each:
NorCalPreps Top 40 seniors of 2004
April 2, 2004
1 Demarcus Nelson SG 6-4 Sheldon (Sacramento) Duke
Nelson became a solid if unspectacular player for Coach K and was the Dookie leading scorer this season at 14.4 point a game. He also tied teammate Kyle Singler on a vertically challenged squad with 5.8 rebounds a contest. As the only senior and as the team captain, Nelson improved his shooting percentage to .490 this go-around after posting .400 as a frosh, .452 as a sophomore and .478 as a junior. His aggressive play and continuous improvement bodes well that he could find himself on an NBA roster next season. It actually might be better for him not to be a second-round draftee as being a free agent will allow him to choose the most advantageous opportunity.
Cal center DeVon Hardin is a probable late first round pick in this year’s NBA draft
2 DeVon Hardin C 6-10 Newark Memorial California
Hardin goes mid-first round in the draft last year and will probably find himself as one of the last five picks of the first round this season. He’s smart, very athletic for his enormous size and fills out a uniform like no other but remains an inconsistent producer. One detriment about Hardin is his lack of a ‘feel’ for the game. It’s as if he has no sense for what to do next -- what step to take, what move to utilize, etc. Many players can instantly size up a situation and seemingly instinctually do what should come next -- not Hardin, or at least not often enough. It is important to note that some degree of this ‘instinct’ is developed through drills until such becomes second nature and does not need to be thought of, just done. The most telling comparison is one between Hardin and UCLA’s Kevin Love. Hardin leaves Love in the dust in physical gifts and athletic abilities but it is Love who knows what to do and when to do it. However, Hardin is still going to make a lot of money.
3 Quentin Thomas PG 6-4 Oakland Tech North Carolina
He’ll have the opportunity to play some overseas, always knowing he is part of the North Carolina ‘family’ if you will -- quite the remarkable lineage and an aspect that can pay solid dividends post college. Thomas played in 37 games this season, starting nine and averaging just below 16 minutes a game. He shot .551 overall and was second on the Tar Heels in assists with 113. Some will say his playing time and production could have been much greater elsewhere which is the proverbial ‘grass could be greener’ argument. The point is Thomas made the choice for himself and obviously was satisfied with how it played out. What others think about it is inconsequential.
4 Robert Rothbart C/F 7-0 Natomas (Sacramento) Indiana
The slim 7-0 wunderkind committed to Indiana out of high school but then decided to turn pro instead. He originally put his name in the 2004 NBA draft but pulled out and headed overseas. Rothbart played two years with the Paris Basket Racing team, one season with the Israeli Hapoel Galil Elyon squad and is now aligned with Borac Nektar, Banjaluka in the D1 basketball league of Bosnia and Herzegovina. He was draft eligible in 2005 but no NBA team called out his name. If his dream was to be an NBA player, then here’s someone who truly needed the development time and training table that college can provide.
5 Antonio Kellogg PG 6-1 McClymonds (Oakland) Connecticut
First it was Connecticut because of his relationship with assistant coach Clyde Vaughan, who later resigned after an arrest. Then back to the Bay Area, for a tumultuous period on The Hilltop with USF. In the 2006-2007 season, Kellogg led the West Coast Conference in scoring at 17.2 points per game and he also topped the league in steals with 2.4 a contest. In June 2007, it was announced that Kellogg was leaving the Dons to turn professional. The sole evidence of his playing for pay is a short stint with the Polpharma sponsored team in Poland. Unfortunately, Kellogg is a testament to how a lack of personal discipline can derail one’s future. He’s young enough to get it together -- will he?
6 Tim Pierce SF 6-7 Hercules Arizona State
Pierce spent one season at Arizona State, then a year not playing at Reedley College and will begin his third and final go-around with San Jose State come the next school year. He led the Spartans in three-pointers made with 69 and averaged 11.2 points per game, second on the team this past season. He may or may not have an overseas future after his senior season but he will possess a college degree. If that isn’t a win, what is?
7 Alex Harris SG 6-4 St. Joseph’s (Alameda) Santa Barbara
The Big West Co-Player of the Year, Harris closed out his Gaucho career with 20.2 points per game average in his senior season and went to the foul line a remarkable 223 times, a result of a high number of postups inside. Last year, he led the Big West in scoring at 21.1 points per contest. While his nice size -- around 6-foot-5 to 6-foot-6 -- is a tremendous asset for the backcourt, Harris lacks the top level athletic ability for the next level. However, look for him to enjoy a long career overseas if he wishes.
8 Zach Johnson PF 6-9 Natomas (Sacramento) Washington
Poor Zach Johnson. He was a member of Lorenzo Romar’s Washington team for two seasons but continued to be plagued with similar-type knee injuries that curtailed his senior high school season. He’s still at Washington but not playing collegiate basketball any longer.
9 Brody Angley PG 5-11 Enterprise (Redding) Santa Clara
Short, squat but effective and a four year stater with Broncos, Angley’s true value was highlighted in the three games against Gonzaga this season. On February 2, his Broncos lost 87-82 in overtime at home with Angley playing 48 mintes, scoring a team-leading 22 points, along with six boards and six assists. In the March 3 rematch up in Spokane, Angley plays but three minutes before being sidelined with a concussion and Santa Clara fell 88-54. On March 9, the Broncos lost to the Zags 52-48 in the West Coast Conference tourney. Angley’s line: 13 points, four assists, 38 minutes played.
10 David Ellis PF 6-11 Capital Christian (Sacramento) Nevada
Ellis never attained the necessary bulk and strength to be much of a factor for Nevada but he certainly enjoyed his stay by being on teams that went to three consecutive Big Dances.
Then there was:
13 Josh Akognon PG 5-11 Casa Grande (Petaluma) Washington St.
After two seasons at Washington State including a team-leading 10.3 points per game as a sophomore, Akognon desired to play in an untempo system and selected CSU Fullerton as his next destination. He nearly doubled his scoring average to 20.2 for the Titans and is now in the midst of showcasing his skills set for various pro teams after putting his name in the hopper for NBA draft consideration. The draft is June 26 and the last day to withdraw from it is June 16. Akognon has one remaining season of collegiate eligibility.
IN HINDSIGHT
From what we know now, a case could possibly be made that Hardin should have been the top-ranked prepster but #2 is mighty close and Nelson sure looked like a very solid collegiate hoopster. Plus with Hardin, it was more a case of lightly tapped potential coming out of high school. A similar case could be made for Kellogg at #3 and Thomas next. Rothbart was the joker in the list since he bypassed college and any prediction regarding him was more potential-based than any other factor. Pierce and Harris could flip-flop spots while Johnson was never able to leave the launching pad. Angley’s also has the numbers in his case to leap over Pierce.
The big miss was obviously Akognon, especially since he demonstrated early-on his ability to be a factor in the tough PAC-10. His laser-like focus on developing his skills set and his general bypassing of club team ball more than likely were factors leading to his lower final ranking.
Also note that just two of these 10 -- three if Akognon is counted -- transferred during their college tenures.
Okay, have at it.